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China's property market and the global economy

By Arthur Thomas - posted Tuesday, 1 February 2011


Add to this, escalating pollution, water shortages, rising inflation and food prices and the potential for rising civil unrest.

Indicators of near panic in the banking sector is reflected in the rush of capital raisings, state bank bond sales, and 6 increases in requirement reserve ratios to date in 2010 that are certain to continue through into 2011.

It is highly likely the measures are too little and too late, lacked coordination between the central and state banks, and affected by political interference.

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Bank short-term borrowings will certainly rise in times of increasing pressure to reduce risk and rising interest rates.

Beijing's own QE is already in progress and could overshadow Washington's QE2.

Time for review

A 5% decline in economic growth could trigger a potential 20% decline in global commodity prices.

It may be timely for nations reliant on China's demand for resources, to focus more on the potential ripple effect on their economies in the event of a price slump in China's property market and begin to modify their economic modelling for 2011 through to 2015 to reflect more on self-reliant domestic policies.

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About the Author

Arthur Thomas is retired. He has extensive experience in the old Soviet, the new Russia, China, Central Asia and South East Asia.

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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