The new scramble for the Arctic

The Arctic became a frontline in the Cold War. With the USSR’s acquisition of both long-range aircraft (later missiles) and nuclear weapons, the US co-operated with its allies to create an elaborate “early warning system” across the region. A World War III would have been fought with bombers and missiles flying over the Arctic.

Now for the first time in its history, the Arctic looks set to play a larger role in world politics.

First, the Cold War is over and relations between the Arctic countries are no longer so frosty. There is a new willingness of the countries to come together to form regional fora.

Probably the most important of the new organizations is the Arctic Council formed in 1996. It’s a high level government forum to provide a means for promoting co-operation, co-ordination and interaction among the Arctic States. It consists of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US.

Second, there is the continued speculation over climate change and the potential melting of the polar ice caps. Half a century ago the polar ice caps were twice as big as they are today.

Warmer Arctic weather creates new opportunities for wealth but also new dangers and new dilemmas. On the one hand, some scientists are worried that northern Russian permafrost (which keeps the soil like concrete) may start to melt. This could release hitherto condensed carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons like methane gas. This would considerably worsen the climate change situation. On the other hand, assuming they can avoid the dangers associated with the change in permafrost, some Russians hope that northern Russia will be a new source of wealth.

Third, the world is moving into an era of increasing scarcity of resources. The Arctic is assumed to have vast untapped resources. For example, the Arctic may hold nearly as much as a quarter of the world’s unexplored oil and natural gas. There may also be other forms of wealth, such as diamonds, gold, manganese, nickel lead and platinum (much the same as is already found in the surrounding countries).

Fourth, as could be expected there has been an increased presence by the neighbouring countries, if only to reinforce their territorial claims. For example, in August 2007 Russia sent a submarine to plant a Russian flag 4,000 metres underneath the North Pole. Russia now has more military vessels in the region since the end of the Cold War in 1991.

Fifth, Indigenous Peoples were overlooked in the previous scrambles for territory. But now Indigenous Peoples globally are bouncing back. They have not been completely exterminated (though they often came close to it). They are now more adept at getting organized.

The peoples in the Arctic region are able to exploit new communications technology to share ideas on common concerns. For example, as with Indigenous Peoples around the world, they tend to have poorer social indicators than the local non-Indigenous populations, such as on life expectancy, education and health.

A common factor among Indigenous peoples globally is that they tend to lose out in the race for development. For example mineral exploration may see the destruction of their traditional hunting grounds. This will be a risk in the Arctic region as the mineral development increases.

There is also a greater international sympathy for the plight of Indigenous peoples which means that they have supporters in the international community. They may also obtain support from environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that have concerns about the environmental implications of mineral development.