North Korea pressures US through provocations

Rather than being used in isolation, these tools are most effective when integrated into a comprehensive strategy utilizing all the instruments of national power. Sanctions and engagement, as well as the other tools, are a means to an objective rather than an end, a point often lost on those who claim that the mere resumption of negotiations is itself a success. Abandoning any component of national power reduces the effectiveness of US foreign policy.

US should strengthen two-track policy

The Obama Administration should maintain its policy of North Korea fulfilling necessary preconditions prior to Washington agreeing to return to the six-party talks. It is important that North Korea first provide solid indications that it will actually abide by its previous commitments and address Seoul’s concerns over the heinous attack on the Cheonan.

The likelihood that Pyongyang received foreign assistance on the uranium program shows that it is past time for Washington to target both ends of the proliferation pipeline rather than restricting sanctions to only North Korean violators. U.N. and US reluctance to target Iranian, Syrian, Burmese, and other government and private entities has hindered international efforts to constrain North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

Washington should also press China to more aggressively combat North Korean proliferation and be more assertive in pressuring Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. China’s expansion of both its official and private sector economic dealings with North Korea has undermined the impact of U.N. sanctions and removed the incentive for Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks, where economic benefits are conditioned on progress in denuclearization.

North Korea’s deteriorating self-control

It is worrisome, if not frightening, how far Pyongyang is now willing to go to achieve its foreign policy objectives. North Korea appears to have abandoned previously self-imposed constraints on its behavior. Although this new brazenness could be related to the ongoing North Korean leadership succession, it may also reflect the regime’s growing desperation brought on by deteriorating economic and political conditions.

Although Seoul will likely exercise restraint in this situation, Pyongyang is venturing into new territory with its recent actions. North Korea’s willingness to engage in ever escalating provocative acts has created a tinderbox on the Korean Peninsula with a commensurate growing risk of miscalculation by either side. The Cheonan attack, the revelation of a uranium enrichment facility, and yesterday’s artillery attack shows that the previously static situation is unravelling.