Security for Australia in the ‘Asia Pacific century’

If Australia is to make provision against even a faint threat of military power being projected against us through South-East Asia, who would be the most likely antagonist? Not the countries of the region themselves but, according to the White Paper, the Chinese. “The pace, scope and structure of China’s military modernisation have the potential to give its neighbours cause for concern if not carefully explained”, the document declares, “if China does not reach out to others to build confidence regarding its military plans”.

The hawkish view

The above quote marks the acceptance by the Rudd Government of the hawkish view among defence analysts of China’s preparations, exponents of which include the corporate-sponsored Lowy Institute, and advisers to the White Paper drafting process, notably Professor Ross Babbage, a former Defence official and arms dealer, who weighed into the debate with a well-timed newspaper column arguing that Australia needs a force at its disposal capable of “ripping the arm off” an invading “major Asian power”. Babbage heads the Kokoda Foundation, whose website announces it as an “independent think-tank” but whose list of sponsors includes the Department of Defence, the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and no fewer then ten companies in the arms industry.

On the subject of China’s intentions, the “Kokoda view” contrasts with that of the government’s own public servants. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute - another Defence-funded body masquerading as an “independent think-tank” - positioned itself as a ring-holder in the debate, noting in a contemporary briefing that whereas “senior Australian defence planners now foresee the rise of an aggressive, hegemonic China in Asia [this is] in contrast to intelligence assessments which see no such China in prospect”.

It’s not surprising that the more hawkish assessment won out over that of the professional intelligence community in drafting the White Paper. The Paper was written following a consultation process, including submissions from major weapons manufacturers, chaired by Stephen Loosley, a former Labor senator who, at the time, had just joined the board of Thales Australia. Company chairman Paul McClintock greeted Loosley’s appointment with a promise to shareholders that the new recruit would help Thales “continue to grow and deliver on its strategies”: which, given that Thales’ main strategy is to snag the biggest possible share of the military budget ($1.1 billion in the period 2006-2009, making it the fifth-largest defence contractor) might be thought to amount to a conflict of interests. The other personnel involved, in both the public hearings and the advisory panel, all came from a similar range of backgrounds: the armed forces and the defence industry.

The unambiguous message to China, in both the White Paper and its accompanying procurement plans - also including new submarines, warships and missile systems - did prompt some perturbations. A front-page story in the Sydney Morning Herald, under the headline, “Rudd accused of fuelling new arms race”, stood out among generally supine media responses in highlighting Chinese concerns:

“A Chinese military strategist, Rear-Admiral Yang Yi, told the Herald recently that Australia had spawned a new variation of ‘the China-threat thesis’ that could be emulated by other nations and encourage them to accelerate their rearmament programs. ‘I really can’t understand this stupid, this crazy idea from Australia’, he said. ‘I am very concerned and worried about it’.”

Since then, China has reacted furiously to the announcement of a new US$6 billion program of American arms for Taiwan, and is a ringside spectator at the ongoing US$8 billion upgrade of the US military base on Guam. Conflicts are becoming increasingly militarised, thus further entrenching US dominance in East Asia.