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Behind China's growing belligerence

By Arthur Thomas - posted Tuesday, 2 March 2010


State media also reported Beijing's protest over the visit of the Dalai Lama to Washington and his meeting with President Obama; the media repeated China’s threats to suspend Sino-US co-operation on key issues and UN matters. Like Beijing's censorship of Obama’s comments during his visit to China, state media only carried Beijing's comments. Beijing prefers to portray the Dalai Lama as a splittist, ignoring the international recognition conferred on the man for his personal dedication and efforts towards finding peace.

The hits are starting to come thick and fast from major trading partners, as well as once-friendly neighbours and client states, now complaining about China's unbalanced bilateral dealings. The US, EU, Australia as well as Russia, India, SEA, African and Latin American nations are responding to China's imbalanced view and tactics in international trade and relations.

China's Non Interference Policy is appearing more a one-sided farce in which Beijing demands respect for China's wishes, while ignoring the wishes and independence of others, and rejects the idea that respect is earned and is not freely given or demanded.

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China's support for nations that ignore the norms for a world seeking freedom from the fear of nuclear war, genocide and large-scale human misery, is seriously testing the patience of the developed nations that have until now, been supporting China.

CCP survival

Survival of the CCP is reliant on the population's perception of China as an increasingly invincible global power, one too powerful for any nation to defy. But if the west is afraid of China's power, what hope does its own population have in defying the CCP?

If the west continues to ignore Beijing's demands and threats, it translates into declining respect for the leadership and an overall decline in China's global influence. That begs the question of the ongoing confidence of the Chinese people in the government. Beijing would have to impose draconian censorship to take care of that!

How does China expect to gain respect, credibility or international acceptance with its growing churlish actions, unreliable data, and its one-sided view of world trade and global co-operation?

Leadership and policy changes

China's new technocrat leadership claims credit for reform, the stimulus package, and a return to near double-digit economic growth against global trends following the global financial crisis. The looming property bubble, the real level of debt, unemployment, rising civil unrest and industrial overcapacity are fuelling rumours that reforms are stalling and a factional divide is looming within the CCP.

Recent subtle and not so subtle swings in the CCP suggest growing disunity and a move backwards from reforms implemented on "well balanced scientific development" by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.

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Unusual events in the Zhongnanhai

Jiang Zemin's sudden and unannounced appearance in second ranking behind Hu Jintao and ahead of other politburo members on the rostrum at the 60th Anniversary celebrations, was not only unusual, it was unprecedented. Equal sized side-by-side photos, published the next day in The People's Daily was also unprecedented, and not meant to be interpreted as a simple courtesy to a retired president.

Despite his placement on the podium, Jiang holds no official position, yet also appeared on state media TV 22 times during the celebrations. Placement in the leadership group is a statement about ranking, and intended to send a clear message. While Hu Jintao may be the Chairman of the CCP's Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin wields the influence in the powerful upper echelons of the Commission, the CCP, and Politburo.

A sign that the technocrats may be losing ground are rumours that the Xi Jinping's succession may not be as certain as first thought. Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and their technocrat support base could be confronting the powerful old guard Shanghai faction.

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About the Author

Arthur Thomas is retired. He has extensive experience in the old Soviet, the new Russia, China, Central Asia and South East Asia.

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