Converging on opportunity

At MIT, for example, cancer scientists are working with engineers to detect tumours early and deliver drugs safely. They are developing viruses that, when injected into the body can hone in on tumours and act like freight delivery agents that can take chemotherapy directly to malignant cells. They can also carry chemicals that can make otherwise unseen tumours more visible to imaging scans. Cancer specialists and engineers are now developing microscopic electrode wires, about one ten-thousandth the width of a human hair, that can potentially provide power for implantable medical devices.

Another trend creating convergence, and opportunities for advanced manufacturers, is climate change. The world of smart metres will create new areas for manufacturers. In his book Hot, Flat, and Crowded, Thomas Friedman writes about smart energy grids that would use power more efficiently, turning the home into a Smart Black Box (SBB) that controls and ensures the seamless inter-operability of lighting, home alarm systems, telephones, computers, internet connections and all other devices, while telling you how much energy they use and ensuring the heating, air-conditioning units, dishwasher, dryer, refrigerator and car battery can run at lower power. Just press the “sleep” button on the SBB control panel when you walk out the door and all lights and appliances either switch off or go to their lowest necessary power. Alternatively, you can call your SBB from your mobile on your way home to tell the house to “wake up”. It's a world where an electric car can charge and store energy at night.

Still, it is important that manufacturers look beyond convergence. If the history of the motor vehicle is anything to go by, we could ultimately be looking at divergence. Just as once-luxury features such as a compact-disc player, electric windows, air conditioning and remote central-locking are now common on cars, we can expect all mobile phones to eventually have GPS satellite navigation, capacity for mobile television and storage space for hundreds of music tracks.

But if anything, the motor vehicle has become more diverse. There are sports cars, family vehicles, city run-abouts and four-wheel drives for people with different needs. Some even have more than one car. A similar trend will happen with other products such as phones and home entertainment systems.

While convergence is transforming the industry, divergence will be just as critical. The car is the first example of this happening but many more will follow. For clues about the future, manufacturers should look at their driveways.