In the last eighteen months close to 20 agreements and memorandums of understanding on nuclear cooperation have been signed between Middle Eastern nations and countries with nuclear technological expertise including Canada, France, Russia and the US.
Algeria has plans to construct its first civilian nuclear plant by 2020 with additional plants every five years after, energy minister Chakin Khelil said earlier this year. Jordan plans to build a nuclear plant by 2017. Egypt inked an agreement this June with [WorleyParsons] an Australian consultancy and Kuwait met with France’s Areva earlier this year. Libya is working out a deal with Russia. And Saudi Arabia has been negotiating agreements with France, the US and Russia.
When Saudi Arabia buys peaceful nuclear reactors it will present a particular weapons proliferation risk. The Saudi’s have been suspected of using their oil wealth to help finance nuclear weapons development (“the Islamic Bomb”) in cash strapped Pakistan in return for an understanding that the Saudi’s could buy Pakistani weapons if required for Saudi Arabia’s defence. Global Security reported:
Saudi Arabia does not have weapons of mass destruction. It did, however, buy long-range CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China in 1988. More recently, Saudi officials have discussed the procurement of new Pakistani [Ghauri] intermediate-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Some concern remains that Saudi Arabia, like its neighbours, may be seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, apparently by purchase rather than indigenous development.
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Even if the Saudis are unable to acquire Pakistani weapons, as such a transaction might be blocked by Western countries, the dual-use reactor industry will provide a long term basis for a weapons program.
Iran may suspect that there is a double standard wherein countries friendly to the West, like Saudi Arabia, can buy ballistic missiles from China and finance Pakistan’s weapons program without any international outrage. Yet countries less reliant on the US, like Iran, are treated as international pariahs if they buy reactors from Russia and build their own enrichment plants. US companies dominate the Saudi oil industry and the US military protects Saudi Arabia while Iran’s industry is 80 per cent owned by an Iranian company and Iran does not want the American military anywhere near it.
Iran genuinely appears to be building a weapons program - partially for a sound defensive reason. As Iran holds the third largest oil reserves in the world it would be mindful of the fate of the fourth largest owner, Iraq. Nuclear weapons deter invasion for oil. What is complicating the usually alarming picture in the Middle East is that even Saudi Arabia and the UAE will acquire a dual-use nuclear capability. This is partly to ensure their post-oil energy needs, but perhaps to develop their own nuclear weapons capability in future to protect their own oil and to counter any future Iranian nuclear threat.
For western companies this newly competitive nuclear sales environment is in the world’s most dangerous region but, no matter, commercial competition conquers caution.
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