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Ahmadinejad a winner - but change may yet come to Iran

By Graham Cooke - posted Monday, 27 July 2009


Heirani-Moghaddam agrees, saying the roots of the dispute lie in the two-tier system set up by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini when he founded the Islamic Republic - “a system that relies on Islam on the one hand and republicanism on the other”.

“Initially Khomeini was able to maintain a balance between the two, but after his death the division between those who believed legitimacy derived from Islamic principles and those who thought it should come from the people widened,” Heirani-Moghaddam said.

The problem has intensified in recent years because the Government tried to keep the lid on debate. Newspapers which attempted to address the problem were closed; strict vetting by the Guardian Council silenced the more radical elements among potential leaders. A generation of young educated Iranians who could see no other way of venting their frustrations took to the streets.

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Mousavi was an unlikely focus for the reformists. An old-style politician whose ideals were formed by the Iranian Revolution, he has little knowledge or regard for Western-style political processes as can be seen by his naïve attempts to keep the street protests going when it was clear Government forces had the upper hand and that further demonstrations would only lead to bloodshed.

Heirani-Moghaddam goes as far as to say that had Mousavi won the election, very little would have changed - certainly not in Iran’s policy to pursue a nuclear program, which he supports. In the short term at least, this will continue to be the major stumbling block to any attempt to improve relations between the country and the international community.

The question is what now for Iran? The reform and democratic movements are left dispirited and rudderless, street protests are increasingly pointless. Mousavi must choose between the role of “leader of the opposition” that was thrust upon him by the election and his commitment to the establishment of which he is a long-term member. He will probably choose the latter.

The most hopeful sign in recent days has come from President Ahmadinejad himself, who in a televised address acknowledged the strength of feeling among Mousavi’s supporters and stated that change had to come. Some commentators also believe that with President Barack Obama in the White House, attempts to unite the country behind fear and hatred of the American Great Satan, will lose currency and a more accommodating policy may be appropriate.

If this is so, and if some compromise can be found on the nuclear issue, then the upheavals that have shaken the country in the weeks since the election will not have been entirely in vain.

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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