Oil and the lucky country

Chart three: scenario’s for Australia’s future oil supply.

Chart three is a sobering assessment of Australia’s future oil supply and raises a number of questions about current policy and the future of the “lucky country”. These questions include:

• how effective will Government “stimulus packages” be that do not consider this problem?;
• can economic growth be maintained as the availability of our primary energy supply declines? Do we need another economic model?;
• how will our transportation systems work if the population grows but the amount of oil available halves?;
• how will we feed a growing population as oil supplies decline?;
• why are investments in public transport a poor cousin to car based infrastructure?;
• what is the future of industries such as aviation, tourism and automotive?; and
• what worth will superannuation have in the decades ahead?

The answers to these questions are fundamental to the future of Australia. The magnitude of the changes required to adapt to a declining oil supply imply a cost measured on a billion dollar scale and time measured in decades. Yet this issue barely rates a mention in most forums of public debate. Unless we collectively come to terms with this problem, and quickly, it is hard to see the “lucky country” remaining lucky for much longer.