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Connect - share - collaborate - create (part 2)

By Chris Abood - posted Wednesday, 22 April 2009


Within the next ten years, information and jobs will find us instead of the other way around as a result of a sharing and collaborating world.

Internet killed the radio star

The most read article on On Line Opinion has been read more than 63,000 times. The first picture of the Hudson River plane crash was released via Twitter within minutes of the crash. Elvis Costello got it wrong, it was not video that killed the radio star.

Within the next ten years, at least one of the major Australian newspapers will fold, either becoming defunct or by moving away from the traditional format or going wholly online. A free to air (FTA) television station will also probably cease transmission. Radio will fare better as they seem to have grasped the realities of the Internet, many now streaming live on the Internet and providing podcasts.

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It never ceases to amaze me that on the very few occasions that I actually buy a newspaper, I see an article that had appeared online a few days earlier. It also never ceases to amaze me that on the very few occasions that I watch FTA television, I see a show being broadcast for the first time that I had previously watched six months before hand. Traditional media are in a continual cycle of catch up and they are falling further and further behind.

I rarely read news and opinion articles about ICT in the major newspapers. This is because their journalists tend to have no ICT qualifications or little understanding of the industry. When they quote someone, it is usually a mate who has been tinkering with computers. When they do quote an expert, they usually muddle their meaning.

For an update on all that is happening in the world of ICT, I go to Slashdot. For opinion, I go to the blog of industry experts. In particular, I read Paul Graham who you will not see grace the pages of newspapers, even though in 2008 he had 10.6 million page views. The only comic I read is online, User Friendly, a comic for techies.

The most significant occurrence to happen within the past ten years within traditional media is the decline in importance of traditional journalists. This will continue unabated during the next ten years as people go directly to the source for news and opinion, rather than read a particular journalist’s take. There is always a “hot topic of the moment” with a myriad of journalists trying to be experts in presenting their opinions. I have stopped reading and listening to these a long time ago. Instead I prefer to go to online sites such as OLO where invariably there will be a professor who has spent decades studying and understanding the topic presenting his or her views.

One thing the past ten years has shown is that you do not have to have a communications degree to write and present. These skills are secondary; it is now preferable to have actual expertise in the subject matter.

The next ten years will see a continuation of people moving away from traditional media to other sources for their news and opinion. The movement to other sources will be especially significant to those that provide interaction with their consumers.

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Traditional media have tried to change but have ended up with the same model. It takes more than to rebadging your staff journalists as bloggers and occasionally allowing readers to post comments. They don’t seem to be able to grasp the new sharing and collaborating nature of today’s generation.

My generation spent a large amount of time in front of the television, listening to the radio or reading newspapers consuming what was fed to us. Today’s generation spend a large amount of time in front of the computer interacting. Many download songs and television shows not because it is free but because it is convenient. Television and newspapers don’t seem to have grasped these concepts as they continue to push their existing models. ITunes has shown that people will pay if it provides an easy and convenient means.

The Internet is gradually replacing the television, radio and newspapers.

Gun for hire

The top ten in-demand jobs today did not exist ten years ago. The United States department of labour estimates that today’s student will have ten to 14 jobs by the age of 38. One in four workers has been with their current employer for less than one year. One in two workers for less than five years. How does a child today answer, “What do you want to do when you grow up”?

The average lifetime of an S&P 500 company in 1920 was 55 years. Today it is 15 years.

Over the past ten years and more, management and leadership were sports oriented. Go the extra mile. Work towards the endplay. Being a team player and so on. Over the next ten years, management and leadership will involve interacting with a large and diverse team over many countries.

Today’s children who play Massive Multiplayer Online Role-Playing games (MMORPG) are tomorrow’s leaders. They will have the interactive skills, the ability to manage diverse resources and will be highly strategically focused.

Today’s hierarchical management structure will be replaced by a flat structure where employees (even from different organisations) share and collaborate to achieve common goals. The chain of command will be replaced by a command of chains.

The next ten years will see a continuation of a mobile and agile workforce. More and more people will tend to work for themselves, utilising their skills where required. They will utilise online networks to find work to sell their skills and knowledge. Today they can be working for an organisation in the next suburb, the following month for an organisation in another country.

The next ten years will see more people starting up their own business. This is due to four factors as outlined by Paul Graham: hardware is cheap; open source has made software free; the web has made marketing and distribution free, and more powerful systems mean teams can be smaller to achieve outcomes.

What is becoming apparent is that a person’s willingness to be involved in continuous learning and being able to adapt will have a significant bearing on their employability.

Feed the beast

It is estimated that four exabytes (that’s 19 zeros) of unique information will be generated this year which is more than in the previous 5,000 years. It is estimated that a week’s worth of the New York Times contains more information than a person was likely to come across in a lifetime in the 18th century. There are currently over 31 billion searches on Google every month. How are you going to find the information you want in the ever-expanding cyberspace?

Currently we search for information using keywords, which match tags associated with the information sought. A list of possible content is displayed for us to browse to determine if it is the information we require. If we come across a site that we like, we would probably bookmark it for future reference.

This has been perfected by Google but is far from perfect. There is still information out there that is of relevance that we may never come across. It is also an ineffective way to find content. The same search criteria can mean different things to different people. If I use the keyword “eel” in my search, I am looking for information regarding the mighty Parramatta Eels rugby league team (although not so mighty these days). However, if a marine biologist uses the keyword “eel”, they are probably looking for information regarding the species of fish Anguilliformes.

Already, content feeds are being incorporated into browsing; feeds such as Really Simple Syndication (RSS). RSS will notify you when new content is available. However, you need to know the site where you wish to obtain the information and subscribe to the feed. This is great if, instead of checking a site such as a blog to see if anything new has been added, you are alerted when new content becomes available. However, this only alerts you to content from that site only, not to content that is of relevance to you from other sites to which you have not subscribed.

Over the next ten years, technologies will emerge which will reverse this process. The content will find you.

Adaptive technologies will learn your requirements and feed you the relevant content. If there is a hot issue with many articles written on the subject, you will be presented with the most appropriate article, removing the need to wade through all the articles. Adaptive technologies will know what type of eel I am interested in, in my case only presenting me with information when they win, not when they get flogged.

To infinity and beyond

The last ten years has seen much change but not as much as we will see in the next ten years. In order for Australia to fully take advantage of the emerging technologies, to truly enter the connecting, sharing, collaborating and creating world, we need a true broadband network. It is hoped that the current government’s fibre to the premises plan does become a reality, as this will be paramount to Australia’s future.

As to my prognostications, perhaps the last word should go to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of The Black Swan. He warns of listening to people like me making long-range forecasts, as the world is far to complex to predict the future.

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Facts stated in this article come from the research of Karl Fisch, Scott McLeod, and Jeff Bronman shown in the video “Did you know?”. Sharing and collaborating concepts by Ralph Demuth, Director of Technical Sales, Services and Support, IBM Asia Pacific.



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About the Author

Chris Abood is a teacher and computer programmer. He has taught at TAFE and private RTOs, and has worked as a computer programmer mainly in banking and finance. He is concerned with the effects and use of technology within society. These opinions are his own.

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All articles by Chris Abood

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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