John Howard - his journey and his legacy

According to Costello and a witness, that was a term of their agreement. Janette Howard would later say that there was no such agreement, because Howard had not provided a firm undertaking. It was this sort of legalism that the Howard prime ministership would become known for, as distinctions would be made between “core” and “non core” promises; “expressions of regret” and “sorry”; and “sorry” and an apology.

Howard Mark 2 (1995-2007)

After feeling confident that he had enough support to become the next leader, Howard invited Downer out to dinner, and told him that he could no longer continue to lead the party. Downer said he would consider his options. Within a couple of days, Downer informed Howard that he had his full support. Soon afterwards, Howard became leader of the Opposition for the second time. After years of being consistently overlooked by the Liberals, Howard was finally given a second chance.

In the first week of question time after he had assumed the leadership, Howard moved a motion of censure against then-Prime Minister Paul Keating. This can be viewed here. Howard’s performance was brilliant, and provided hope for a demoralised Opposition that had endured Hewson and Downer’s leaderships.

Howard knew that in order to win the 1996 election he would have to moderate his image. He did this by retracting his previous remarks concerning Asian immigration, pledging to not abolish the immensely popular Medicare, promising that under his industrial relations reforms “no worker would be worse off” and by guaranteeing that there would “never ever” be a GST if he were prime minister. The electorate, angry against Labor for the recession, broken promises and Keating’s smug style were only too happy to happy to vote for Howard, and this resulted in a landslide victory for the Coalition and the beginning of John Howard’s prime ministership.

The rest, as they say, is history. Howard went on to win three more elections and serve as Prime Minister for almost 12 years. The Howard government was very much a government for the dries of the Liberal party, as it continued the economic reforms of the Hawke and Keating years, in many areas going further than Labor ever would have.

His government implemented tax reform, further reduced tariffs, introduced work for the dole, sold Telstra and introduced two separate waves of industrial relations reform. Arguably WorkChoices went too far in removing protections for the lowest paid workers. It no doubt contributed to the 2007 election loss that ended Howard’s political career.

In the end, Howard was defeated by a younger, and equally clever and determined opponent in Kevin Rudd. Like Howard, Rudd carefully positioned his party’s policies in the centre in an appeal to swinging voters. Like Howard in 1996, he minimised his political weaknesses by pledging to keep the popular aspects of his opponent’s policies.

While Rudd was just as politically astute as Howard, he also had circumstance on his side, in spite of the booming economy. Rising interest rates (contrary to the Coalition’s 2004 election pledge), WorkChoices and a pervasive “it’s time” factor all contributed to Howard’s political downfall.

History will inevitably remember Howard as being a prime minister who overstayed his welcome with the electorate, and paid the price with an election defeat in which he even lost his own seat.

The Howard factor

The values Howard grew up with, and always believed in, included respect for hard work, aspirationalism and a supportive family environment. Critics have sought to paint Howard as a man stuck in the 1950’s. As pointed out in the biography, John Winston Howard by Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen:

Were Howard anything like the caricature favoured by his opponents - a man who has learned nothing since the Menzies era - he would not have made it to the peak of political achievement in twenty-first century Australia.

As Howard himself once presciently observed, “the times will suit me”. The simple values he believed in at a young age would later resonate in an economic rationalist era which has embraced personal responsibility and opportunity. Meanwhile, the family has never lost its appeal and importance. It is likely that Howard appealed to many voters because he shared their values, even if parts of his ethos have appealed to different groups.