As in most countries that have adopted a neo-liberal economic agenda, the rich have got richer than they could have imagined, but more than a million households still live in relative poverty and as interest rates and petrol prices rise so do the numbers in financial stress.
After an unimpressive first two terms, the post-2001 world has suited Howard. He is not afraid of being divisive - indeed he has made an art of deliberately targeting those he casts as “elites” in a series of culture wars aimed at imposing his narrowly nationalistic view of what it means to be Australian. He has learnt how to appear empathetic when necessary.
Despite widespread opposition, Howard has pulled Australia into ever closer lock-step with George Bush’s America since September 11, 2001, when by mischance he was in Washington, not far from the Pentagon as one of the al-Qaida piloted planes crashed into it.
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Australian membership in 2003 “Coalition of the Willing”, the 30 countries which initially supported the invasion of Iraq, was trenchantly opposed with large rallies and widespread activism. Yet when the troops departed for the Gulf the operation, opposition appeared to dissipate, in part because the involvement, while costly, is only a notch above the symbolic. As other countries have withdrawn troops Australia has maintained its small commitment of about 1,500 troops in the region, about 500 engaged in training, logistics and support in southern Iraq. Only one Australian soldier, Jake Kovco, has died a result of “skylarking” on the base, not enemy fire.
As a consequence Iraq does not generate the same passion in Australia as in Britain or America where the roll call of daily deaths has reduced even the US Defence Secretary to tears. Australians are accustomed to deals with great and powerful allies, and prepared to accommodate them so long as the cost is not too high, and the action not too close to home and the benefits tangible - a pragmatic, if unattractive national characteristic.
The cynicism that marks this engagement has been repeated time and again over the past decade; in immigration, Aboriginal affairs, foreign relations, security, climate change, industrial relations and education. Mapped on a flow chart the pattern would be boxed as denial followed by distraction and finally belated action. As the election approaches, we have moved to the belated action frame, with (uncosted) new initiatives announced daily on education, Aboriginal affairs, climate change, broadband and health.
While this cynical style has enabled many to feel “relaxed and comfortable”, Howard’s stated ambition, it has had a corrosive impact on the character and confidence of the nation - sapping initiative, stifling creativity and undermining public engagement.
Immigration is a good example. Successful management of mass immigration has been central to the creation of the ethos of contemporary Australia, once at the international forefront with social policy that integrated new arrivals while also acknowledging and respecting cultural and religious differences. This was built into every facet of public life, from language classes and anti-discrimination laws to a dedicated national television network with an explicitly multicultural mission. Its success could be measured in many ways, the most tangible, very high rates of intermarriage between people of different backgrounds.
Howard was never comfortable with multiculturalism a concept he had branded “politically correct” and once elected he set about dismantling the mechanisms that ensured, until December 2005 when thousands of drunken “Aussies” fought equal numbers of louts “of Middle Eastern appearance” at Sydney’s Cronulla Beach, that Australia had been free of ethnic violence. In January 2007 Howard signalled it was dead, when he renamed the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship and started drafting multiple choice questions to test any would-be citizen’s understanding of Australian values.
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Yet immigration rates have been at record levels for five years. Typical of the bait and switch trick that has characterised Howard’s prime ministership the very real impact of this population increase - measured in falling housing affordability, shortages of skilled labour and increasing pockets of mono-cultural suburbs - has been deflected by public attention focused on the ghastly plight of the few thousand refugees who were denied entry, sent to off-shore processing facilities or detained in desert camps and immigration centres.
Howard has made political hay for years after sowing the seeds of social distrust, declaring like the authoritarian father he often resembles, “We will decide who comes into this country” and then suggesting judgment based on ethnic characteristics.
But the mood of the country is changing, as the strong public reaction which forced the release of Dr Mohammed Haneef after he was wrongly charged with recklessly supporting terrorism, showed. Every week new polls reveal less support for the government, a trend that has left many mystified. Never before when the economy was booming has the electorate been so ungrateful. “It is as if they are no longer listening,” senior ministers complain. It is clear that the majority are no longer convinced that “father knows best”, instead according to internal Liberal Party polling leaked this week they consider the prime minister at 68 an “old, tricky and dishonest” liability.