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All is not well in the Kingdom of Thailand

By Graham Cooke - posted Thursday, 9 August 2007


Thailand votes on August 19 in a referendum for a new constitution that should be the first step towards a return to the democracy snuffed out 11 months earlier in the military coup that toppled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But for many commentators it is a recipe for a return to pre-Thakson days of constantly collapsing coalitions with real power leaching to nameless bureaucrats, the judiciary and the military.

The Hong Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission summed it up with this grim forecast: “It is by now clear that if the referendum is passed and the bogus draft constitution brought into law, it will return Thailand to a 1980s model of elite-bureaucratic government under military guidance.”

Even so, it appears that most Thais are prepared to take the military-backed interim government’s advice and vote “yes” in the referendum, with elections for a new parliament likely to follow before the end of the year. There is an overwhelming desire for normalcy, to put the endless crisis talk, the demonstrations and rumours of further coups behind them and get back to the business of making a living.

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Outwardly they appear to be succeeding. The beaches in Phuket and Pattaya are busy again, the bars and restaurants are full and tourists are again besieged by locals selling everything from cheap suits to massages. The 2004 tsunami is a fading memory, bird flu is under control and the economy is booming.

Yet behind the façade all is far from well. The insurgency in the predominately Muslim south of the country and centred on the province of Pattani, is increasingly vicious with bombings, shootings or violence of some kind now an almost daily occurrence.

This unpleasant little conflict gets little coverage in the international media mainly because, as one Bangkok journalist puts it, “the rebels are concentrating their attacks on Thai police and other security forces and are not targeting Western tourists - yet”. Even so, the conflict is consuming huge amounts of Thailand’s manpower and resources - 30,000 troops deployed and around $5 billion spent so far - without any tangible results.

There is now a growing feeling that the insurgency could spread to other parts of the country, including Bangkok. A top security analyst and adviser to the government, Panithan Watanayakorn, has even raised the spectre of civil war while slamming “20 years of futility” by successive Thai administrations in dealing with the crisis.

The insurgents are certainly getting bolder. Earlier this year a bomb went off just 100 metres away from where a daughter of the Thai king was scheduled to land by helicopter, while a convoy carrying a senior aide to the queen was shot at, injuring a police officer.

The problem is compounded by the seeming inability of the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to deal with the situation. In a brutally frank research paper, the Singapore Institute of International Affairs joined a growing chorus which questions whether the government or the junta that backs it is really committed to the cause of peace.

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“Pent-up frustration and the growing sense that the government disrespects the southern Muslim community may have contributed to the recent spate of extreme violence … their minds are elsewhere, playing politics in the capital,” the institute says.

A recent visit by Chulanont to the south was dismissed by Don Pathon, of the Nation newspaper, as window dressing. “He has rejected autonomy for the region, without coming up with any alternatives,” he said.

The chaotic state of Thai politics following the coup is another growing headache for the government. Far from being a unifying influence, the military takeover has resulted in the country being more bitterly divided now than it was under Thaksin’s flamboyant and controversial rule.

The former billionaire prime minister was largely despised by Bangkok’s sophisticated elite, but retains wide support in country areas where his populist style struck chords with the rural poor. The fact that even in exile he seems to command sufficient resources to complete the multi-million dollar purchase of English Premiership football club Manchester City has done his reputation no harm among his supporters.

Thaksin loyalists are also outraged by the Thai government’s determination to pursue his financial dealings, and by its banning of his Thai Rak Thai political party which opponents claim makes a farce of voting in the referendum. Last month, demonstrations against the government turned violent with injuries both to protesters and police.

Even if Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai are permanently removed from the political scene - and that is by no means certain - the government still has to tackle the economic confusion caused by Thailand’s currency, the baht, which continues to appreciate despite the central bank cutting interest rates on five occasions this year.

In a country dependent on cheap exports for its prosperity, the issue is increasingly sensitive and the laying off of 5,000 workers from a textile factory which makes sports clothing for Nike and Adidas prompted furious street protests which ended only when the workers were re-hired after the company was bailed out by the Thai Garment Manufacturing Association.

But perhaps the most ominous development is the criticism, as yet still anonymous and muted, of the role of the Head of State, King Bhumibol Adulyadej Rama IX, in last year’s coup.

The king is the world’s longest-serving monarch and a revered father figure, his picture is everywhere and the 60th anniversary of his succession to the throne last year was the occasion for lavish celebrations. In the past he has been a unifying influence, none more so than his intervention in a 1992 conflict which halted bloody street battles and probably averted a civil war.

However one commentator, who for obvious reasons did not want to be named, said the king had made a mistake in backing the junta against Thaksin’s democratically elected government.

“You have to remember he’s almost 80 now and may not have such a tight grip on affairs as he once did,” the commentator said. “In the past he’s been a pillar of stability and without him this country could easily have descended into chaos years ago.

“But times have changed and we cannot go on calling on the military to mount a coup every time we have a government that some people don’t like. It’s not doing our reputation any good in the modern world and the generals, the politicians and yes, the king himself, have got to come to terms with that.”

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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