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Life after Howard – claiming the nation’s values

By Corin McCarthy - posted Tuesday, 8 November 2005


In his piece in The Age, “Emperor Howard”, Michael Gordon confirms the conquest of John Howard over his foes. For Gordon, the passing of industrial relations and anti-terror laws mean Howard can act without a direct mandate.

Commentators in America make similar claims about George Bush. We often hear that Bush has transformed two narrow victories into a dominance of foreign policy never envisaged by the American public. Bush’s foreign policy, supported by Howard and Blair appears unrestrained. They seem to set their own executive agenda.

These world leaders - Howard, Bush and Blair - have displayed a remarkable control over the politics of their nations. Yet in spite of their authority these three will be gone in a few years and certainly by 2009. Who will replace them? What comparisons can be made between the respective challengers in their respective lands?

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In America they face up to Bush's replacement as a matter of constitutional obligation. Historian Niall Ferguson said recently John McCain could possibly obtain the American people’s trust in 2008. He asserts that McCain could place a break on the neo-conservatives and this will be a requirement for Republican success.

It's a vital moment for Republicans. The next president must define the limits of American power and ambition. Will the Republicans choose Dick Cheney, John McCain, or someone else?

The Democrat challenger, very likely to be Hilary Clinton, must define what he or she stands for post-Bush? The Democrats have to consider their liberal ideals which are undoubtedly out of fashion. In essence they must chose between a liberal ticket and the southern centre-right. In 2008 as in 2004, the Democrats will not close these communities. They must choose between long-term values and the hope of victory. Their plight mirrors the Australian Labor Party’s electoral problems very closely in this regard.

Whether America chooses a neo-conservative, a more realist Republican, or a centrist Democrat, the contenders are already arguing the values and beliefs being fought over. The primaries system also allows for a long-term debate over future direction. Americans will have a real choice, both within the primaries for each party, and then between the presidential candidates.

The wrapping of a presidential candidate in personality traits and values is a marked contrast with Australia’s view of a future prime minister-in-waiting. Here Peter Costello and Kim Beazley have failed to mark out the values on which they have respective claims to the Lodge. What's more, they don’t look like doing so soon.

Costello’s claim to be prime minister comes from his performance in an economics portfolio. This is similar to Gordon Brown the obvious challenger in Britain. The public trust them. They are assets to their governments. However, for both, security concerns and international affairs dominate the current domestic agenda and this diminishes their claims.

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They are caught in a bind. They cannot speak too widely on security issues beyond their portfolios and by not doing so, have not been able to demonstrate their respective capacities as future prime ministers.

Howard for his part has mastered "high alert politics". Australians feel as threatened as the Americans and the British. This is breathtaking because it shows how the public has responded to Howard's constant message on international security and terrorism. It appears an absurd claim given there has been no attack on mainland Australia, but the public has taken it on trust. This public acceptance makes Costello's job to prove himself even more difficult.

For the Australian Coalition a transition is a bigger challenge than for the British Labour Party. The public really doesn't know Costello's values, nor is there a perception that he is capable in the new environment of heightened security. Costello never appears to be the considered statesman that these times require.

Any transition is also complicated by whether Costello would forge a new direction for government. Given Howard's current performance and poll results, any new directions would be high-risk politics. For instance, what does Costello think of the anti-terror laws? Or the current refugee policies? Does he fully agree?

The notional view is he is more liberal than Howard, but Costello appears a blank canvas on law and order and border protection, and does not discuss family values widely. Where does he sit on these issues?

Unlike Costello, Brown has heavy support within his party. Brown represents something to Labour - a comfort zone away from the ultra-centrist Blair - whereas Costello offers nothing new (or old) to the Liberals that Howard does not offer them now. Indeed, Blair will be replaced when Brown can prove that he can win elections, and this is likely to be later this term.

Brown for his part uses his party conference speech each year as the leadership speech-in-waiting. He outlines his moral and philosophical beliefs widely and lets his specific policy disagreements with Blair be known. The British public consequently knows Brown far better than the Australian public knows Costello.

Kim Beazley faces a recognition problem too. His values, core beliefs, agenda and program for governance are not made out in a manner that can challenge “Emperor Howard”.

Beazley has suffered because of his earlier small-target strategy, even though he holds strong values. Beazley should also take a leaf out of Brown's book and make a claim to the values of the nation - obtaining a widely reported forum to do this. While this is high-risk politics, the public requires it before taking him on trust.

By failing to present a strong alternative, Costello and Beazley have helped create an uber-Howard that identifies strong directed leadership for the Australian public. Despite this, no one seriously believes Howard will be prime minister in five years time. So what will happen between now and his departure?

Unlike the fate awaiting Bush and Blair, Howard's is still a mystery. Australians are waiting for their alternative leaders to set out an alternative. Who will spell out the next defining message for the Australian community: Costello or Beazley, or someone after them?

With the possibility that leadership could skip a generation (see David Cameron coming through for the Tories) the current candidates need to take their chance.

Which values will shape the next generation of world leadership? The next three years will be as important as the transition from Keating, Major, and Clinton. What will it bring? Who will be standing at the top? McCain, Brown, and …?

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About the Author

Corin McCarthy was an adviser in opposition and government to Craig Emerson MP. He also advised Labor’s 2007 election campaign on small business issues. He has written widely on these issues in The Australian and On Line Opinion. He currently works as a lawyer in London advising on major infrastructure projects. These views are his own.

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