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Global warming hots up but not the weather

By John McLean - posted Friday, 4 March 2005


Speakers at this conference also disputed fundamental claims about global warming. Professor Mangini of the University of Heidelberg said with regard to the geological past, scientists are agreed about ice core evidence which suggests that the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels followed an increase of temperatures - and not the other way round. Professor Gerlich of the Technical University of Braunschweig argued that at 0.03 per cent of the total volume of the atmosphere the concentration of carbon dioxide was simply too insignificant to cause any measurable temperature change. He and Britain's Julian Morris had little time for mathematical modelling with Gerlich suggesting that climate modellers were worse than astrologers, the latter of whom at least observed real planets and their movements.

Those comments about modelling may well be true if the predictions by Australia's CSIRO are anything to go by. The CSIRO models appear to be unable to accurately reproduce the temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years. What hope is there that their predictions for the next 100 years will even be close?

In a recent paper in Ecological Modelling, Craig Loehle of the USA analysed 2 temperature sequences of 3,000 years. He concluded, as many global warming sceptics have before him, that anywhere from a major portion to all of the warming of the 20th Century could plausibly result from natural causes.

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On February 25, 2005 David Taverne, a member of Britain's House of Lords, stated in parliament that he was in favour of reducing carbon dioxide emissions but went on to mention several of the uncertainties about climate change. He particularly noted the tendency for the IPCC's draft documents to initially show uncertainties but replace these with more definite statements prior to publication, a process he described as "sexing up".

He went on to say, "There is a sort of political taboo about the issue. If you express doubts, you must be in the pay of the oil industry or a Bush supporter. There is a slight whiff of eco-McCarthyism about."

With natural events now being seen as the likely cause of recent warming, the accuracy of models being questioned, growing disquiet about global warming in several countries, more dissent among scientists than claimed, the "hockey stick" looking rather mangled, and temperatures failing to behave in the manner they are supposed to - and whether one will attract the ire of eco-McCarthyists or not for saying so - it seems that global warming theories may be headed for meltdown.

If global warming theories are indeed incorrect and carbon dioxide is not the cause, then the primary justification for the Kyoto Agreement disappears, and with it the associated concept of carbon trading, alternative energy systems, and funding for research projects.  No wonder a few people are getting a little hot under the collar.

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John McLean is climate data analyst based in Melbourne, Australia.

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