Will the Berejiklian Government be the next to go?

Gladys Berejiklian, in the face of criticism from Daley, now promises to also lift spending on school building by $917 million, pledged $1.3 billion to rebuild the Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, $780m for the John Hunter Hospital in Newcastle, and $2bn over four years for the north-south rail line to Western Sydney Airport.  This all conveys a picture of "easy-come, easy-go", which offends many taxpayers.  The NSW Government seemingly prefers a spending spree to squirreling away some money for coming harder times, or (worse still?) leaving it for Labor to (eventually) spend.

Meanwhile, the latest from Daley is that, if the controversial demolition of the stadium goes too far for a refurbishment (before March 23), he will build a less extravagant venue than the $730 million one planned by the government.

There are additional factors that have dented the government's popularity.  These include lockout laws (reducing late trading in licensed premises), problems affecting the new (privately-run $600 million) Northern Beaches Hospital,and forced local government amalgamations.  Loss of water for irrigation, and native vegetation laws are also key "bread-and-butter" issues disenchanting some rural voters.

The BerejiklianGovernment has dulled the issue of renewable energy as a major point of difference with Labor (which, however remains more strident on climate change).  This is because the NSW Liberals are controlled by the "moderate" faction, which is broadly opposed to coal-fired electricity and has restricted exploitation of natural gas.  Gladys Berejiklian has gone as far as saying her government has no plansto approve any new coal-fired power stations in NSW, while National's state leader, John Barilaro, has demanded that Barnaby Joyce "shut-up" on the issue.  This all contrasts with the Berejiklian Government's prediction that NSW will sharply increase coal shipments over coming decades.

Many voters, particularly conservative Liberals and many Nationals, are now worried about NSW repeating the experiment of SA and Victoria in terms of electricity policies that lead to higher prices and reduced reliability.  Intensive users of electricity are being made uncompetitive under current policies.

The Berejiklian government wants to appear united on energy, despite clear dissent within its member parties.  More broadly, Liberal party disunity arguably is most bitter in NSW, and there have been allegations of shenanigans on the part of the controlling "moderates" in some pre-selection processes.

Coalition voters generally won't switch to Labor based on the energy issue but some may look to vote for alternative conservative parties.  Support for the state Coalition seems to be sliding most in regional areas, though currently, of the 93 state electorates in NSW, only 23 are outside the Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong greater area.  Changing demographics already disadvantage the Nationals, whose heartland lies in rural areas and regional towns.  The inland parts of these areas have in many cases suffered population declines, while in coastal areas there has been an influx from the cities that tends to support Labor or the Greens.

Sources close to the Nationals believe the party will struggle to hold its seats in the Far North Coast, and is under siege from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in some other traditional strongholds.  According to Graham Richardson, Mark Latham will be elected as a One Nation member of the NSW upper house and may even drag in a second member with him.

The ABC's Anthony Green suggests that the Berejiklian government is certain to lose two and probably three lower house seats, with Labor certain to improve and the Greens likely to lose one seat.  Minority government supported by Shooters and Fishers plus some independents is tippedas the most likely outcome of the election.  According to the Financial Review, the latest poll would cost the government six seats - it has a six-seat majority - and would lead to a hung Parliament if replicated across the state.

Overall, while there is some anger in parts of the electorate, the big question is whether (in current good times) this is enough to unseat an undistinguished government.