Nevertheless, despite all of those uncertainties, the outlines of the trajectory are clear. Oil demand in the developed world saw a temporary boost over the last four years or so because of the collapse of oil prices. That has mostly run its course. Demand "should return to outright declines as the price effect wears off and efficiency takes over," BofAML wrote.
Emerging market demand should continue to grow as more people acquire cars. China, however, has made a major EV push and its demand growth is already starting to slow.
"The major driver of structural change in oil demand trends in the next five years and beyond is expected to be electric vehicles," BofAML said. By 2020, EVs will capture 5 percent of global vehicle sales, which will balloon to 40 percent by 2030, before rising to 95 percent by 2050.
All of that implies a peak in oil demand by 2030, a little over a decade from now. We are in the midst of the "biggest structural shift in demand growth since the proliferation of the car began in the early 1900s," BofAML concluded.
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