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Trump’s withdrawal from the INF treaty could signal a new nuclear arms race

By Glen Anderson and Blake Pepper - posted Thursday, 15 November 2018


The UK in 2016 announced that it would be replacing its four Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines with four new ships – dubbed the Dreadnought-class. Each will contain Trident II D-5 missiles, each of which are able to release eight 100 kiloton warheads during the re-entry phase.

France has renovated its nuclear submarine fleet with the introduction of the Triomphant-class during 1986-2010. The last in class – Terrible – has been equipped with the M51 ballistic missile, which is capable of releasing six 150 kiloton warheads during the re-entry phase. All Triomphant-class ships are being retrofitted with the same system.

China has recently deployed large numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles. The former Head of the US Pacific Command, Admirable Harry Harris, has testified before the US Senate that China has "the largest and most diverse missile force in the world." Beijing is also estimated to have four Jin-class ballistic missile submarines.

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India has quietly diversified its nuclear forces. In addition to ground and air launch systems, it has recently added submarine ballistic capabilities with the commissioning of the INS Arihant. A second more advanced Arihant-class submarine, the INSArighat, is currently being outfitted and expected to be operational in 2019.

Pakistan is intending to place nuclear capable cruise missiles in up to three of its five French built submarines. Pakistan has also reportedly stuck a deal with China to obtain eight further nuclear capable submarines by 2028.

Although there is general consensus that Israel possesses a nuclear deterrent, there is no agreement as to its size. Despite this, there have been credible commentators, such as former US President Jimmy Carter, who have suggested that during 2008-2014 Israel's capability expanded by approximately 100 percent.

North Korea has a well-documented nuclear program. Although plagued with technical problems, even a single weapon delivered by missile would be capable of devastating cities such as Seoul or Tokyo.

Iran's nuclear ambitions appear to have been halted for the time being under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However in the future, Tehran may reinstate a nuclear weapons program, if only to remain strategically relevant or to deter regime change.

Other states to previously covet nuclear weapons include Syria and Libya.

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Nuclear proliferation is steadily increasing, meaning that the threat of nuclear war is correspondingly increasing. Unlike the Cold War, however, the threat posed by nuclear weapons is worryingly absent from mainstream consciousness. In a world dominated by Facebook and the 24-hour news cycle, talk of nuclear proliferation is viewed as unfashionable – even anachronistic.

Humanity may be sleep-walking towards the nuclear conflict it has to have – the questions are though at what cost to human life and to what extent the environment as we know it will be forever changed.

Hopefully, these doomsday questions will remain unanswered.

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About the Authors

Glen Anderson is a lecturer in law at the University of Newcastle. Dr Anderson researches and teaches in the areas of international law, equity, company and property law. He has formerly taught Australian and international politics.

Blake Pepper is a graduate in Law and Commerce from the University of Newcastle.

Other articles by these Authors

All articles by Glen Anderson
All articles by Blake Pepper

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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