$100 oil is a distinct possibility

That mantra seems to have been fleeting as a growing number of analysts see higher prices ahead with concerns about the possibility of triple-digits.

"The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter," Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. co-founder Daniel Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, according to Bloomberg. "In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of $100 a barrel." Meanwhile, the co-head of oil trading at Trafigura, another top oil trader, said that $100 oil was possible by the end of the year.

One of the key factors that will determine whether this happens or not is how Saudi Arabia responds.

"Our plan is to meet demand," said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. "The reason Saudi Arabia didn't increase more is because all of our customers are receiving all of the barrels they want." His comments came after the OPEC+, which ended with no plans to increase output.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Aramco has told its customers that might be running short on Arab light crude in October, and that in the long run, it won't be able to meet demand if Iran is knocked offline. "[W]e are heading to a price spike, likely $90 to $100" an oil trader told the WSJ. "It's not just Iran that will suffer. It's going to have a boomerang effect with rising gasoline prices" in the US

Worse, Saudi Arabia has officially said that it could cover for Iran's losses, even if most of Iran's production goes offline. In the past, Saudi officials have suggested that they could produce up to 12.0-12.5 mb/d if it the market needed it. But Saudi sources told the WSJ that producing "11 million is already a stretch, even for just a few months." With output already up to about 10.4 mb/d, that leaves a significantly smaller pile of spare capacity than is commonly thought.

"It's tearing higher," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, according to Bloomberg. "Technicals and fundamentals seem to be pointing in the right direction at the moment and that can be quite a potent cocktail."