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Senate must be made aware something’s gotta give

By Gary Johns - posted Thursday, 14 July 2016


When an irresistible force
such as you
Meets an old immovable
object like me
You can bet just as sure as you live
Something's gotta give …

The popular song by Johnny Mercer, Something's Gotta Give, was written in 1954, the year Malcolm Turnbull was born. He should revive it as an anthem for the nation. The irresistible force is public debt. The immovable object is the Australian Senate.

The 2016-17 budget, presented to the electorate on May 3, lapsed at the dissolution of the parliament on May 9. The government will have to reintroduce its budget knowing that a majority of senators refuse to cut spending as a path to erasing public debt.

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It is highly likely that some superannuation tax increases will be removed from the budget and reintroduced after reconsideration and possible negotiation with the Labor Party. There also may be negotiation with Labor over those savings measures previously introduced and rejected by the Senate.

It is not in Labor's interests to allow the budget deficit, which it created, first by spending more than it had and second by refusing Coalition savings, to get further out of hand. Just as the Liberal Party rarely has the numbers to govern other than in coalition with the Nationals, it is increasingly likely the Labor Party will never again govern in its own right.

Instead, it will rely on the Greens, and Greens are a very expensive commodity.

But any agreed cuts will be lean. To coin a phrase, they are not going to cut it. Coalition politicians can forget spruiking mandates. A majority of senators is unlikely to support any ''new'' cuts to payments such as pensions and benefits.

This is where Malcolm has to shout out loud: Something's gotta give!

Pensions and benefits under the Social Security Act 1991 are automatically paid through ongoing appropriation authority enabled by that act.

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This means almost 80 per cent of spending receives automatic approval on an ongoing basis. A government cannot change the way this money is spent without also changing the underlying acts involved.

In the event of the Senate refusing to pass changes to pensions, they keep getting paid. The Senate can squeeze the government but not the pensioners. The government is powerless to do anything, save another double dissolution.

There is, however, a class of payments for which there is no legislation other than appropriations. The commonwealth provides financial assistance to state governments. In the 2016-17 budget the commonwealth was to provide the states with $116 billion in total payments. This money amount to 26 per cent of total commonwealth expenditure.

Turnbull must cut these payments.

The Senate can reject these cuts, but any holdup means that the money does not flow to the intended recipients. This constitutes real pressure to pass.

This money is spent on public hospital services, government and non-government schools, road and rail infrastructure. These payments are Turnbull's battering ram in the Senate.

Turnbull has to learn to play hardball. The Senate has to be made aware that Something's Gotta Give. They either cut payments to people or services. A commonwealth government that does not make this deal explicit is failing in its duty to the electorate.

It is the sort of failure that allowed Labor's fraudulent campaign about the privatisation of Medicare. On election day a friend received the text claiming to be from Medicare (the sender said Medicare) and knew it must have been a scam. On talking to some younger people at her daughter's cafe - two had received the same text - she learned that they naively believed the SMS and, like thousands of others, voted Labor as they were afraid of losing their health benefits.

If the first part of the Turnbull strategy is squeezing payments to states, the second is squeezing Turnbull's snobbery. The Coalition has fertile ground among more than 500,000 voters who opted to vote for Pauline Hanson's One Nation, the Australian Liberty Alliance, Rise Up Australia and sundry others.

Turnbull must move away from the concerns of the city elites on culture wars. Turnbull should get stuck into anyone who rabbits on about weaker borders, treaties with Aborigines, Islamophobia, gender identity or withdrawing a gay marriage plebiscite.

Turnbull must abandon the ABC Q&A crowd and speak direct to Hanson's constituency. About the only Coalition seat in Australia at risk from such a strategy is his own, which he can be quite confident he will not lose.

Remind the voters, PM. Something's gotta give …

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This article was first published by The Australian.



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About the Author

Gary Johns is a former federal member of Parliament and served as a minister in the Keating Government. Since December 2017 he has been the commissioner of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission.

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