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Notes on the Western Australian Election

By Graham Young - posted Monday, 12 February 2001


Another inference is that the election is highly likely to be four or five different elections conducted in different geographical areas, and that even within those areas there will be huge variances between seats. Voting patterns in Western Australia in urban, mining and agricultural areas were quite different. Normally there is a corporate vote in most urban electorates with the personal votes of candidates counting for little. This time around candidate personalities will probably play a larger part, making the task for good sitting members a little easier. Polls showing Liberal Party support at 13% in Brisbane probably do not take account of this. Likewise statewide polls of One Nation understate its strength in significant hot spots in the state.

In Western Australia the some of the biggest swings against the Liberal Party occurred in the city, not the bush, but this is where One Nation’s influence was the least. This mirrors the trend for the Liberal Party in Queensland and New South Wales where the strength of the non-Labor parties tends to be outside the metropolitan area. In Queensland the Liberal Party has been all but banished from Brisbane, holding only 4 seats. This seems to be a result of its having moved to the right over the last 25 years and abandoning policies which appealed to the more sophisticated voters. In Western Australia Liberals for Forests have probably won a seat, suggesting there is a green and conservative constituency available. Multiculturalism is also another issue that the party has neglected.

However, unlike the Eastern States the West Australian National Party has remained resolutely rural and often fought with its coalition partner. It is one of the big winners from this election, increasing its representation by one seat. It was also unambiguously opposed to One Nation, suggesting that this might be a better approach for the National Party than the Queensland Nats policy of appeasement. Another inference would be that the Coalition might do better in Queensland if the National Party were to concentrate on becoming a purely rural and regional party again, and the Liberals were to concentrate on urban areas. With both major non-Labor parties making a pitch to Centre/ Right voters it leaves space for additional competitors on the left and right of the political spectrum.

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There is unlikely to be a swing to Beattie, based on the Western Australian result. Not just because of the vote rort affair, but because most of the city gains that he can realistically expect were made at the last election. His gains will most likely come from a decline in the One Nation vote.

Ultimately the take-out from the Western Australian election is that the Queensland election is finely balanced with the Labor Party holding a very slight edge over the Coalition, and fewer independents and others (possibly none of them One Nation), likely to win. That opens up possibilities for the Coalition in the event of Beattie failing to get a majority in his own right.

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About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

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