Can the LNP overcome the Newman factor?

In the 2009 election Bligh promised no privatisations, then almost immediately sold off 5 government corporations after the election to raise $15b contrary to an election promise.

That crippled Labor's vote for the rest of that term.

But then, halfway through the 2012 campaign government and opposition were level pegging as a result of Labor's "Campbell's Web" negative campaign accusing Newman of corruption and cronyism.

The campaign collapsed when the CMC found he had no case to answer and Bligh told journalists she had no evidence.

Voters weren't going to be taken for fools twice and the rout resulted.

Now Newman finds himself in similar strife.

After the election he established a Commission of Audit. It found the state budget was in financial trouble with the highest per capita debt in the country, a ballooning and inefficient public service, and borrowings going to service running costs.

He immediately announced austerity measures, including the sacking of 14,000 public servants.

None of this was mentioned in the election campaign and voters interpreted it as a "broken promise" or "lie".

The government's communication strategy has also been poor. There appears to be little central coordination, and no one has a clear idea of who the core constituency is, while the central control structure is weak and inconsistent.

The government implements solutions to problems that the public didn't know existed, a case in point being the tough bikie legislation (although this has since become fairly popular).

They have also picked non-strategic fights with groups in society, such as judges and the Bar Council. This has made the strategic fights, like those with doctors in public hospitals, harder.