Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

The world's best economies, past, present and future

By Alan Austin - posted Wednesday, 26 March 2014


Intriguingly, post-war powerhouses Japan, the USA, the United Kingdom, Germany and France are well down both lists.

The formula can be applied at any time in the past: How did Australia rank when Peter Costello inherited the ledgers in 1996? How did Australia rank when Paul Keating took them from John Howard in 1983?

Comparing the two lists compiled so far – 2007 and 2013 – reveals dramatic rises and spectacular crashes.

Advertisement

Australia starred, striding from 9th to clear first place. Canada climbed from 13th to 7th, Sweden soared from 18th to 9th, New Zealand zoomed from 25th to 10th, and Taiwan turned up 14th from 22nd. Others to rise dramatically were Oman, Chile and the United Arab Emirates.

The dismal demises were mostly in Europe: Iceland fell from 2nd to a frosty 15th, Ireland is idling now at 32nd after starting 14th, Finland finished 19th from 5th and the Slovak Republic slipped from 16th to 41st. Other losers were Hong Kong, Bahrain, the Netherlands and Spain.

What do these booms and busts reveal about the competing explanations for Australia's extraordinary ascendancy?

Of the five main theories, only one appears well-supported by the movements up and down the rankings.

Firstly, did a strong cash position at the onset of the GFC do the trick? The analysis suggests not. Most cashed-up economies tanked.

Secondly, budget surpluses? Again the evidence is against. Hong Kong, Bahrain, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Finland, the Netherlands, and Iceland all had strong surpluses in 2008, yet all went backwards badly. An inverse correlation, if anything.

Advertisement

Was it Australia's good fortune, thirdly, to have iron ore to export? Not really. Brazil, India and South Africa also exported iron ore but all went into recession and fell in the rankings through the GFC.

Fourthly, trade with China? Yes and no. Other countries have substantial exports to China. These include the Euro Area, Hong Kong and Malaysia whose rankings all fell spectacularly. Australia and New Zealand among China's suppliers rose substantially. But was that the reason?

Consider, fifthly, countries which applied strong and rapid stimulus spending when the GFC hit in 2008.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. Page 2
  4. 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

153 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Alan Austin is an Australian freelance journalist currently based in Nîmes in the South of France. His special interests are overseas development, Indigenous affairs and the interface between the religious communities and secular government. As a freelance writer, Alan has worked for many media outlets over the years and been published in most Australian newspapers. He worked for eight years with ABC Radio and Television’s religious broadcasts unit and seven years with World Vision. His most recent part-time appointment was with the Uniting Church magazine Crosslight.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Alan Austin

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Alan Austin
Article Tools
Comment 153 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy