Abbott on notice

Our research suggests that Labor's claims of broken promises are starting to resonate, and it is partly a consequence of this.

A particularly interesting straw in the wind is the loss of support amongst non-Green minor party voters. While they are still on balance in favour of the Coalition, that support has dropped dramatically. Add to that open hostility from some of their political leaders, like Clive Palmer, and Abbott really could be in trouble.

While Labor portrays the Liberals as being in favour of the big end of town, they've actually held power since 1996 through the support of blue-collar conservatives in outer-suburban and regional areas. These people disproportionately make up the base of the non-Green minors.

Judged by social class they are more naturally Labor's constituency, but they vote Liberal on the cultural grounds of traditional values, and the practical grounds of economic performance.

The fact that 60% of them favour a Liberal government should give Abbott some comfort. The fact that on election day this was 77% should give him reason for pause. Another 100 days like this and it could be only 43%.