A climate policy for grown-ups

Technology is the key to any prospect of combatting climate change. Australia should take a research and development role in proportion to its capability. But recognise that methods for reducing emissions are contentious. Can renewable energy technologies really displace fossil fuels totally? Is nuclear energy an option for Australia? How far can energy efficiency and conservation take us? Advocates take fixed positions on all these matters. With alternative energy technologies in particular, over-promising has been rife.

Demand that scientists, technologists and engineers eliminate ideology and wishful thinking from their projections of technology performance and costs. Ensure adequate government support for advancing the technical and economic basis for reducing emissions. Publicise its progress. Be satisfied that people and processes for deciding funding of development projects are applying appropriate discipline and scepticism. Make energy economics an important focus. Encourage interdisciplinary research on the real prospects of reducing energy usage via better technology and efficiency.

4. Don't start pricing carbon until the technology to reduce emissions in line with a planned emissions reduction trajectory is actually available.

Carbon pricing is one means of allowing the intrinsically more expensive low emission technologies to become competitive with fossil fuels. Up to around 50% reduction in carbon emissions by replacing coal with natural gas is technically straightforward; just buy the generators and pipe in the gas. For deeper cuts recognise that there is much blue sky involved with the possible technologies, which depend on improvements or on energy sources yet to be accepted or discovered. Realise that relying on such future developments is a very risky strategy. Remain sceptical about optimistic cost and performance projections for alternative energy sources. Educate the electorate on the important influence of energy costs on national prosperity.

5. Don't start forcing emissions cuts until you are certain that the world's main emitters, and preferably the whole world, are doing the equivalent.

There is much game-playing in the way emission reduction policies are being propagated. Develop firm global performance indicators on which to base Australian policy decisions. Don't rely on mere proposals or action plans. Assume that nations will use propaganda and exaggeration to embellish their climate action performance. Again, stay sceptical.

6. Finally, and perhaps contrary to the technology-neutral spirit of the above, take one small punt on future low-carbon technology; bet on nuclear energy as the leading contender.

Accept the likelihood that the only feasible energy source comparable to fossil fuels in intensity, continuity and performance, and therefore able to meet much of the world's energy needs, is the heat generated by nuclear fission. Start and hold Australia on a path that keeps a nuclear option alive. Invest in understanding and addressing the peculiarly Australian aversion to nuclear power. Help the world develop solutions to the real and perceived issues associated with nuclear energy, especially via new nuclear technologies. Recognise that in the long term much transportation will probably rely on primary nuclear energy, via electricity and secondary fuels. If that is true, much work will be needed.