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The kids will be alright with a generational future fund

By Malcolm King - posted Friday, 10 May 2013


Pirating

Pirating is fun (avast!) until someone poaches your head of IT or someone who is the 'go to' person of the organisation. If recruiters and employers can't get the people they need, they pirate. Over the next 30 years as the post war generation retires, poaching will become an epidemic.

Offshoring

Put your managing directors hat on, pull out the SWOT plan and look in to the future. He or she can see labour shortages. Not so in Thailand, Singapore, India or China. Because the Government has failed to correctly design and implement it's older job seeker and employer suite of programs, most employers are still at the 1970s default position – older workers are a risk, not an asset. The services and manufacturing sectors can see the writing on the wall. Not only can they access cheap labour offshore but also they can see a shortage of workers and increased costs for the workers they can attract onshore.

Population growth is projected to slow to an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent over the next 40 years, slightly lower than the 1.4 per cent average annual rate of growth over the previous 40 years. Proportionately, fewer people will have to carry more of the tax load to pay for boomer public healthcare needs.

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A prudent and precautionary principle should be to assume that future generations will not have a significantly higher capacity to contribute to government coffers and therefore should not have a higher tax burden passed on to them.

Young people have watched as the generations before them have been showered with one-off senior's payments, family payments, baby bonuses, tax-exemptions on family homes and superannuation tax breaks while house prices have skyrocketed.

They rightly assumed that they'd earn these government entitlements too. While Australia will remain a strong trading nation, structural changes in the labour market and falling multifactor productivity will force future governments to be more circumspect about welfare payments.

While inheritances will certainly help some, the average life span of the boomer generation is about 83 years for men and 85 for women. The children will be well in to middle age before any largesse comes their way.

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia, the average retirement payouts in 2009-10 were around $198,000 for men and $112,600 for women. The median figures are much less. It is clear that many retirees (especially in the 1945-54 cohort) will rely on the age pension.

Even if we accept that tomorrow's children may be richer on average than today, the costs of caring for their parents and grandparents will also be greater. The principle that such costs should be borne by those who generate them, underpins Australia's world-leading superannuation system. It is also the basis for generational equity.

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Are future generations always richer? One need only look to youth unemployment levels in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal. They are in the order of 40-50 per cent. Their future is bleak. We have to go back to the 1950s (when there was war debt in play) and before that, to the 1930s, to see debt levels in Europe this high. The last time debt burdens were this high, not a single country in the world had a median age above than 36.

Australia should follow Norway's lead and plan beyond the election cycle to ease the challenges of foreseeably worse-off generations.

 

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An edited version of this article appeared in The Drum



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About the Author

Malcolm King is a journalist and professional writer. He was an associate director at DEEWR Labour Market Strategy in Canberra and the senior communications strategist at Carnegie Mellon University in Adelaide. He runs a writing business called Republic.

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