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North Korea more calculating than crazy

By Julie Bishop - posted Friday, 15 March 2013


North Korea’s response was to issue a statement declaring that it "abrogates all agreements on non-aggression reached between the North and the South", disconnected the telephone hotline with Seoul and threatened to attack another island within South Korean territory.

In suitably menacing tones, the regime announced that North Korea had nullified the 1953 Korean War armistice. South Korea wisely ignored it by pointing out that unitlateral declarations were prohibited under the agreement.

North Korea claims it has no choice but to respond to military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea.

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The regime appears unable to break out of the pattern of behaviour that has preserved it for more than 30 years.

Its instinctive response when its threatening behaviour does not yield any benefit is to increase the level of provocation.

Speculation about the North Korean regime often centres on whether it will implode in the way that East Germany fell apart or whether it will explode with attacks on South Korea, Japan or the United States.

If we assume the regime is focused on its own survival, then it follows that it may launch relatively minor attacks on South Korea but will refrain from action that it calculates will trigger a significant military response that could quickly descend into war.

That assumption may be on shaky ground.

North Korea’s belligerence is one of the regime’s defence mechanisms but it is also a weakness in that it greatly increases the potential for miscalculation and overreaction.

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The regime has one of the largest standing armies in the world however its conventional weapons capability is believed to have deteriorated badly over the past 20 years and its missile capability remains under development.

South Korea fears that the North will maintain the vast bulk of its hardware and troops close to the border and thatif war did break out, enormous damage would be inflicted on Seoul, just over 50km from that border.

Significant damage would be inflicted regardless of whether North Korea’s armed forced were overwhelmed by the response.

Any outbreak of serious conflict on the Korean peninsula would have direct consequences for the region including Australia.

While it is tempting to parody North Korea, it remains a serious international security risk.

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Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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