Many problems to be faced in the new Burma

While the Rohingya, now numbering around 800,000, have lived in Burma for decades – and possibly since the middle of the 19^th century -  the Government describes them as ‘Bengali immigrants’, denies them citizenship and places restrictions on their travel and education. After the latest wave of violence it has more or less left relief efforts to international agencies.

Such is the antipathy towards the Rohingya among the Burmese population – in Yangon I heard comments such as “illegal Bengalis invading Burma” and “the Government must do something about our porous borders”, that even Suu Kyi has retreated to the illegal immigrant argument.

While atrocities that took place have been under-reported, human rights groups claim to have numerous accounts of rape and torture by security forces with more than 1000, most of them Rohingya, currently in detention without trial. Claims of crimes against humanity have touched a sensitive nerve with the Thein Sein Government, which has held out the possibility of resettlement and citizenship to those who can prove they are long-standing residents in Burma.

Elsewhere, the long standing conflict with the semi-autonomous Kachin Independence Organization, on the border with China, shows no sign of being resolved. 

The test of Burma’s fledgling democracy will come in 2015 when a general election is due.  If it’s free and fair the National League for Democracy will almost certainly win a substantial majority and Aung San Suu Kyi will become president – an outcome that Justin Wintle says would not be in the best interests of the country.

While admitting that Suu Kyi is a rallying point for unity – an important quality in a country with so many ethnic minorities – he believes she would not make a good executive president. 

“She really has very little knowledge of economics and the nuts and bolts of running a country,” he said. “A really good outcome would be a change in the constitution to make the presidency a ceremonial position, with the executive power in the hands of a prime minister and cabinet.

“However, there is little chance of that happening.”