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Israel on the horns of a dilemma

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 22 November 2012


A question that I am often asked by Israelis is, "How many rockets would have to land on Australian soil before the public demanded action against the attacker?”

It is hard to think of a circumstance where any attack involving even a single rocket would not be met with a swift response from our military.

Israel has shown considerable restraint as hundreds of rockets and mortars have rained down on its territory during the course of this year.

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According to Israeli security reports, 173 rockets and 19 mortars were launched during the month of March alone.

It is rare for more than a few days to pass without an attack on various parts of Israel.

Militants in Gaza are using these tactics to terrorise and target Israeli civilians.

It has only been through the deployment of Israel's Iron Dome defence system that there have not been more casualties.

I have visited some of the Israeli cities and towns that represent the “front line" of the recent attacks.

Residents, school teachers and students told me their stories of escaping from harm's way by running to bomb shelters located in homes, on the streets and in other public areas.

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There are bomb shelters built near school bus stops and in playgrounds so that children can quickly find shelter.

The stress of a constant threat to their lives places an enormous burden on the shoulders of community leaders who have responsibility for the safety of residents.

Israel has responded to these recent attacks with regular strikes against the militants preparing rocket launches, and against the leaders of the militant groups, but it has not launched a major offensive including ground forces into Gaza.

The Israeli government has called up tens of thousands of reserves and stationed military hardware close to the border with Gaza in preparation for a ground assault.

There has been a concerted international effort to broker a ceasefire and Israel has suspended any decision on the invasion of Gaza to allow this process to take its course.

Yet this places Israel in an extremely difficult position.

The militant groups in Gaza have boasted that Israeli airstrikes have had little impact on their stockpiles of rockets and other weapons.

In recent days longer range rockets have been fired, reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, with these rockets reportedly supplied by Iran.

There is conjecture that Hamas has developed the capacity to manufacture longer-range rockets, with equipment also reportedly provided by Iran.

Significant amounts of arms are also believed to have flowed into Gaza after the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya.

Israel cannot eliminate these weapons stockpiles from the air and a ground operation would be the only way to locate and destroy the terrorist infrastructure.

However Gaza is among the most densely populated places on earth and any invasion would inevitably result in more casualties among the Palestinian people, the militant forces and the Israeli forces.

Israel is more than aware that it is not only engaged in a military conflict but also in a battle for global opinion.

Any ground invasion would be leveraged by the Palestinian militants through the release of film footage of any injury or death of non-combatants, particularly women and children.

However, if Israeli forces do not enter Gaza, this would be used by the militants as evidence that Israel feared an invasion, thus claiming a victory of sorts over Israel.

It is not immediately apparent why Hamas has been motivated to escalate the number of attacks at this time, nor why it is apparently seeking to provoke a military response from Israel.

One answer to that question may lie in the fact that Iran has increased its influence among militant groups in Gaza including the supply of rockets and other weapons.

High ranking member of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh recently threatened to strike first against Israel rather than wait for an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

With a history of using proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, rather than directly confronting Israel, it is arguable that Iran has influenced Hamas to launch its rocket attacks in an attempt to distract world attention from Iran's nuclear activities that many claim to be a covert weapons program.

Israel faces a difficult choice in whether or not to send ground forces into Gaza.

Either option has significant risks.

One critical factor will be the evolving nature of the threat Israel faces from militants, and whether it would be more advantageous for Israel to confront such a threat at a later time.

If Hamas and other militant groups continue to fire rockets and mortars into Israel, it is only a matter of time before Israel concludes that the only option available is a ground invasion.

The consequences could be far reaching and wildly unpredictable.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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