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The best of budgets, the worst of budgets

By Nicholas Gruen - posted Wednesday, 11 May 2011


One could make fiscal policy more independent by establishing an independent agency to provide regular public advice to government on its fiscal stance, in the way the Productivity Commission does with industry assistance. In the interim, one could seek the same advice from the Reserve Bank via its regular publications.

Had the Government done so, (it could still do so now) it could expel the demons of fiscal laxity without booby-trapping its own future, should things turn out worse than expected. It could commit to following its independent fiscal advisor's advice to publicly advise it on managing the return to surplus, or more timidly, could commit to its current course with an escape clause allowing it to delay the return to surplus if so advised.

Alas, the change of government came to look more like a quick backstage costume swap. Now it's the new Coalition Opposition arguing – quite rightly – for higher surpluses so that we don't squander the dividend of the resources boom (as they did when they were in Government).

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Likewise the ALP in opposition attacked the consequence of the push to minimise debt at all costs – the Howard Government's neglect of infrastructure investment – while ALP State governments were doing much the same thing. Ask John Brumby, Kristina Keneally and Anna Bligh how that's all going.

All this from accepting, and so reinforcing, one's opponents' framing of the issues.

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About the Author

Dr Nicholas Gruen is CEO of Lateral Economics and Chairman of Peach Refund Mortgage Broker. He is working on a book entitled Reimagining Economic Reform.

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